NYSE AMEX Composite Index - 2004

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 2004 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 1173.55 Hist. Volatility: 0.51% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value: 1434.34 Percentile: 91%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2004 (what's this?).